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            >> 信息公開 >> 應急管理 >> 預警信息
            甘肅省2019年汛期氣候趨勢預測
            日期:2019-04-12 08:44 來源:省應急管理廳 瀏覽次數: 視力保護色:

              【摘要】預計汛期(6~8 月)降水河西西部和甘南西部偏多 2 成左右, 省內其余地區偏少 1~2 成;全省大部氣溫偏高 1℃左右;汛期降水過程主要集中在 7 月上旬之前,盛夏降水總體偏少,有相對晴熱少雨時段,伏旱明顯。

              一、2019 年第一季度天氣氣候特點

              氣溫總體偏高:全省 1~3 月平均氣溫較常年同期偏高 0.8℃,冷空氣及寒潮降溫場次少于常年。各月氣溫空間分布差異大,冷熱不均, 其中 1 月河西大部偏低 0.5~2.5℃,河東大部偏高 0.5~2.5℃;2 月河西大部偏低 0.5~1.6℃,河東大部偏高 0.5~3.5℃;3 月全省大部偏高1.0~3.0℃。我省大部入春時間較常年同期偏晚。

              降水少于常年:1~3 月降水較常年同期偏少 7%,為近 5 年最少, 時段分布不均,其中 1 月河西大部偏多 5 成~3.5 倍,河東大部偏少 2~6 成;2 月較常年偏多 1 倍,為近 5 年最多;3 月全省大部偏少 2~8成,為近 5 年最少。

              大風沙塵天氣少:1~3 月,我省大風沙塵少于常年,共發生大風41 站次。全省 13 縣(區)出現揚沙天氣;12 縣(區)出現浮塵天氣,3 月 27 日(5 縣)、28 日(8 縣)分別出現 2 次區域性浮塵過程,3月 27 日(6 縣)出現 1 次區域性揚沙過程;未出現沙塵暴天氣。

              近期旱象逐步顯露:3 月以來,蘭州市北部、白銀市中南部無降水日數為 15 天左右,平涼市中部和慶陽市東北部無降水日數超過 30 天,根據最新土壤墑情分析,定西市安定、臨洮,平涼市東部,天水市渭北地區、隴南市宕昌、文縣等地有輕旱,白銀市和慶陽市大部有輕到重旱,隴中北部和隴東大部旱象露頭,對春耕春播不利。

              二、汛期氣候趨勢預測

              預計我省 5 月降水量與歷年同期相比,武威及其以東大部分地方略偏多,省內其余地方略偏少;氣溫接近常年。6~8 月,河西西部和甘南降水偏多 2 成左右,其余地區偏少 1~2成;氣溫全省大部偏高 1℃左右。汛期降水主要集中在 7 月上旬之前,降水天氣過程相對較弱,盛夏降水總體以偏少為主。有相對晴熱少雨時段,伏旱明顯。

              三、抗旱防汛建議

              (一)今年是厄爾尼諾年,我國雨帶分布可能是南澇北旱。預計2019 年汛期我省氣溫以偏高為主,省內降水大部偏少,伏旱明顯,因此今年汛期氣象防災減災形勢嚴峻,要提早做好各種應急措施,同時重點關注中短期預報預測,減輕災害對我省的不利影響。

              (二)注意局地強降水。預計汛期河西西部和甘南偏多 2 成左右, 同時夏季省內強對流天氣易突發,需加強防范。建議做好防汛工作部署,全面排查隱患,預防短時強降水天氣造成的局地洪澇、滑坡、泥石流等災害。

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